What are your odds of solo mining a block?
Solo mining is a lottery where every hash is a ticket. Enter your hashrate and see the real odds against the live Bitcoin network.
How solo mining odds work
Each block, every miner on the network races to find a valid hash. Your chance of winning a given block is simply your share of the total hashrate. With about 144 blocks a day, your daily chance is roughly 144 times that.
Why people still do it
Small devices like the Bitaxe have found real blocks solo — a few dozen in the last year across the world. The odds are tiny, but the prize is an entire block reward, and the electricity cost of a small miner is low. It is a lottery, not an income.
Play for a block without a miner
FreeBTC runs a real solo miner. Every block you play earns you tickets for the season; if the miner ever hits, 90% of the reward is shared among players.
What are the odds of solo mining a Bitcoin block with a Bitaxe?
With about 1.2 TH/s against roughly 1 ZH/s of network hashrate, the chance per day is roughly one in six million at the time of writing (October 2026) — about once every 16,000 years on average. The calculator above uses the live figure.
Is solo mining worth it?
Financially, almost never: pool mining gives steady small payouts. Solo mining trades steady income for a small chance at a full block.
How is the network hashrate measured?
It is estimated from the current difficulty and recent block times. This calculator uses live data.