A forecasting game, not financial advice.
Forecast target: the BTC-USD price on October 17, 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Live BTC-USD (Coinbase): $81,851.59.
The crowd median is published once at least 50 people have forecast.
Yesterday (Oct 15, 2026): Bitcoin was $82,131.46 at 00:00 UTC. Closest: Gemma (Google), 0.02 % off. source
Closes in 5h 50m (20:00 UTC) · Beat every AI and earn +3 season points.
Sign in to predictPlay free chips on the AI you think will be closest. Their forecasts stay sealed until 20:00 UTC, so pick by track record.
Pays ×4.9 if your AI is the closest (ties split the payout). With 5 AIs that is a 98 % return across all picks.
Sign in to predictCounts for the weekly rankings. Chips are free and are never money.
Every AI gets exactly the same prompt with public market data. Its answer is sealed with a salted SHA-256 hash, chained to the previous seal and anchored in Bitcoin with OpenTimestamps, so nobody (us included) can change it after the fact. How we verify the AIs →
gpt-oss:120b · Ollama Cloud
17f689e2da0dca98f4db4dde1e1c00c248e5c316938f745a434f6889b086cdb3Sealed 2026-10-16 00:05 UTC · Anchored in Bitcoin block #971638 · .ots proof · stamped file
Prediction, salt, prompt and raw reply are revealed at 2026-10-16 20:00 UTC.
gemma4:31b · Ollama Cloud
d52d29bf5d4645571407eafd6f606d9d045a7a455b678dca9e494879f4706949Sealed 2026-10-16 00:05 UTC · Anchored in Bitcoin block #971638 · .ots proof · stamped file
Prediction, salt, prompt and raw reply are revealed at 2026-10-16 20:00 UTC.
nemotron-3-ultra · Ollama Cloud
35dfb87f813b0d1693532d13c3569c48fdb02b5ecdc93d1291f427bd9ab81b22Sealed 2026-10-16 00:05 UTC · Anchored in Bitcoin block #971638 · .ots proof · stamped file
Prediction, salt, prompt and raw reply are revealed at 2026-10-16 20:00 UTC.
dots-studio/dots-3-note-preview:free · Ollama Cloud
a509e9829569bfa13c3f0765fc59e8cc886a28c92d1ae15e3152c65d06104925Sealed 2026-10-16 00:05 UTC · Anchored in Bitcoin block #971638 · .ots proof · stamped file
Prediction, salt, prompt and raw reply are revealed at 2026-10-16 20:00 UTC.
liquid/lfm-2.5-2.6b:free · Ollama Cloud · LFM2.5 did not answer today — statistical fallback
20df9a0f89dade7b8d19a7edd629921e4f4fb9c5c1c6a3527968be39822102dcSealed 2026-10-16 00:05 UTC · Anchored in Bitcoin block #971638 · .ots proof · stamped file
Prediction, salt, prompt and raw reply are revealed at 2026-10-16 20:00 UTC.
Mean absolute percentage error (lower is better) of each AI and of the crowd median, from resolved days only. “Wins” = days the AI was closest (ties split).
| Forecaster | 7 days | 30 days | 90 days | Wins (90 d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemma (Google) | 0.02 % | 0.02 % | 0.02 % | 1.0 |
| DeepSeek | 0.40 % | 0.40 % | 0.40 % | 0.0 |
| Kimi (Moonshot AI) | 0.50 % | 0.50 % | 0.50 % | 0.0 |
| GPT-OSS (OpenAI) | 1.13 % | 1.13 % | 1.13 % | 0.0 |
| Mistral (Mistral AI) | 1.62 % | 1.62 % | 1.62 % | 0.0 |
| Day | BTC at 00:00 UTC | Closest AI | Error | Crowd error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | $82,131.46 | Gemma (Google) | 0.02 % | — |
At 00:05 UTC the AI models (one per lab: GPT-OSS by OpenAI, Gemma 4 by Google, Nemotron by NVIDIA, Dots3 by Dots Studio and LFM2.5 by Liquid AI) receive the same prompt: the last 14 daily closes, 24-hour and 7-day change, highs and lows, the Fear & Greed index and the halving and difficulty countdowns. Each one answers with a price for 00:00 UTC tomorrow.
Until 20:00 UTC anyone signed in can send a forecast. The AI answers stay sealed until then; the seals are public from the start.
After midnight the day is scored with one public number: the close of the Coinbase BTC-USD 1-minute candle from 23:59 to 00:00 UTC. Anyone can open that candle and check it.
The AI with the smallest absolute percentage error wins the day. Every forecast, error and seal stays on this page, so the record builds up day after day.
Not reliably. Over a single day Bitcoin’s price behaves much like a random walk, and simply repeating the current price is already hard to beat. This page measures it in public: five AI models and the crowd forecast the 00:00 UTC price every day, and the accuracy table shows how far off each one is. It is a forecasting game, not financial advice.
We measure it daily as the absolute percentage error against the Coinbase close at 00:00 UTC, and publish the average over 7, 30 and 90 days. Over the last 30 days the most accurate AI here (Gemma (Google)) was off by 0.02 % on average across 1 days. When a model does not answer, a statistical fallback is used and labelled as such.
They are sealed at 00:05 UTC and revealed at 20:00 UTC, when human forecasts close. From then on you can read the exact prompt, the raw reply and the salt, and check the seal in your own browser with the Verify button.
The close of the Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD 1-minute candle from 23:59:00 to 00:00:00 UTC. It is public data: we link the exact candle every day.
One per lab: GPT-OSS (OpenAI, gpt-oss:120b), Gemma 4 (Google, gemma4:31b) and Nemotron (NVIDIA, nemotron-3-ultra), served by Ollama Cloud, plus Dots3 (Dots Studio, dots-3-note-preview) and LFM2.5 (Liquid AI, lfm-2.5-2.6b), served by OpenRouter. The day's table shows exactly which ones competed. Every prediction stores the name and real id of the model that was asked.
If your forecast is closer than every AI, you earn 3 season points. In Back an AI you play free chips, which are never money; plays count for the weekly rankings.
No. It is a forecasting game built on public data. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to do anything with your money.